COMPAS: A microsimulation model to project the future health and healthcare use of the Canadian population

David Boisclair1, Guy Lacroix 2, François Laliberté-Auger1, Pierre-Carl Michaud1
1ESG UQAM, Montréal, QC, Canada, 2Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada

The team of the Industrielle Alliance Research Chair on the Economics of Demographic Change has built a microsimulation model that allows for detailed projections of the Canadian population’s health and healthcare use. Based on Statistics Canada’s Canadian Community Health Survey and National Population Health Survey, the dynamic model, COMPAS, generates complete population distributions of mortality and incidence and prevalence of 7 major health conditions and 2 risk factors (obesity and tobacco use) until 2050, as well as healthcare use. Some healthcare costs, such as those for hospital stays and medical consultations, have also been attached to the various individual profiles – by age, sex, disease and risk factor presence and several other characteristics – using regression methods.

The presentation will provide an overview of COMPAS, as well as projections of future life expectancy and disease prevalence for Canada and Quebec’s elderly population. For instance, in the baseline scenario dementia prevalence among the 70 y.o. and older in Quebec is projected to increase from 10% to 14% between 2015 and 2050, while heart disease prevalence is projected to increase from 16% to 25% among the 60-70 y.o. over the same period.

The results of various “alternative” projection scenarios will also be shown. Examples of such scenarios include a 50% decrease in the incidence of obesity-related diseases, which substantially decreases the aggregate costs of medical consultations in 2050 but increases the costs for long-term facilities; and a 50% decrease in the incidence of stroke after-effects, which does not affect aggregate healthcare costs.